Job Market Paper
Pass-through Rates of Corn, and Natural Gas Price Changes to Fertilizer Price Changes in the United States (PDF)
Abstract: Several factors have affected the U.S. fertilizer industry for decades, including innovations in natural gas extraction, increased global demand for biofuel, and mergers and acquisitions between fertilizer producers. I found four structural changes in the relationship between fertilizer, natural gas, and corn prices. Estimating the pass-through rates of the changes in corn and domestic and international natural gas prices to anhydrous ammonia prices show that domestic natural gas price change is the major contributor to the shift in anhydrous ammonia and urea prices most of the time. International natural gas price changes prominently show its effect when global gas prices are high relative to domestic prices. Additionally, increased demand for biofuel drove fertilizer prices higher. However, the demand-side pressure on fertilizer prices subsided afterward.
Abstract: Several factors have affected the U.S. fertilizer industry for decades, including innovations in natural gas extraction, increased global demand for biofuel, and mergers and acquisitions between fertilizer producers. I found four structural changes in the relationship between fertilizer, natural gas, and corn prices. Estimating the pass-through rates of the changes in corn and domestic and international natural gas prices to anhydrous ammonia prices show that domestic natural gas price change is the major contributor to the shift in anhydrous ammonia and urea prices most of the time. International natural gas price changes prominently show its effect when global gas prices are high relative to domestic prices. Additionally, increased demand for biofuel drove fertilizer prices higher. However, the demand-side pressure on fertilizer prices subsided afterward.
Work in Progress
Evolution in the Relationship Between Nitrogen Fertilizer, Corn, and Natural Gas Prices in the U.S.
Time-Varying Hedge Ratio for Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Risk
The Business Case for Carbon Farming in the USA (co-authored with Alejandro Plastina and Haeun Jo)
Time-Varying Hedge Ratio for Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Risk
The Business Case for Carbon Farming in the USA (co-authored with Alejandro Plastina and Haeun Jo)
Peer Reviewed Publications
Wongpiyabovorn, O., A. Plastina, J.M. Crespi. 2022. "Challenges to voluntary Ag carbon markets." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Early view. (Link)
Wongpiyabovorn, O. 2016. “Financial development and economic growth: the cases of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.” International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Countries, 9(2), 103-126. (PDF)
Wongpiyabovorn, O. 2016. “Financial development and economic growth: the cases of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.” International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Countries, 9(2), 103-126. (PDF)
Outreach Publications
Wongpiyabovorn, O., A. Plastina, and J. Crespi. 2023. "Policies To Reduce GHG Emissions Should Look to Agricultural Carbon Markets." ProMarket, March 6, 2023. (Link)
Crespi, J.M., C.E. Hart, C.C. Pudenz, L.L. Schulz, O. Wongpiyabovorn, and W. Zhang. 2022. "An Examination of Recent Fertilizer Price Changes." Staff report 22-SR 117. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Wongpiyabovorn, O., C. Hart, and J. Crespi. 2022. "Fertilizer Markets: The Clash between Energy, Ag, Weather, Profits, and Policy." Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2022. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Plastina, A., O. Wongpiyabovorn, and J. Crespi. 2022. "What’s in Store for Voluntary Agricultural Carbon Markets?" Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2022. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Wongpiyabovorn, O., A. Plastina, and S. Lence. 2021. "Futures Market for Ag Carbon Offsets under Mandatory and Voluntary Emission Targets." Agricultural Policy Review, Fall 2021. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Plastina, A. and O. Wongpiyabovorn. 2021. “How to Grow and Sell Carbon Credits in US Agriculture.” Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, Ag Decision Maker File A1-76. Updated February 2023 (Link)
Crespi, J.M., C.E. Hart, C.C. Pudenz, L.L. Schulz, O. Wongpiyabovorn, and W. Zhang. 2022. "An Examination of Recent Fertilizer Price Changes." Staff report 22-SR 117. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Wongpiyabovorn, O., C. Hart, and J. Crespi. 2022. "Fertilizer Markets: The Clash between Energy, Ag, Weather, Profits, and Policy." Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2022. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Plastina, A., O. Wongpiyabovorn, and J. Crespi. 2022. "What’s in Store for Voluntary Agricultural Carbon Markets?" Agricultural Policy Review, Winter 2022. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Wongpiyabovorn, O., A. Plastina, and S. Lence. 2021. "Futures Market for Ag Carbon Offsets under Mandatory and Voluntary Emission Targets." Agricultural Policy Review, Fall 2021. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
Plastina, A. and O. Wongpiyabovorn. 2021. “How to Grow and Sell Carbon Credits in US Agriculture.” Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, Ag Decision Maker File A1-76. Updated February 2023 (Link)
Published Working Paper
Wongpiyabovorn, O., A. Plastina, and J. Crespi. 2021. "US Agriculture as a Carbon Sink: From International Agreements to Farm Incentives." Working paper 21-WP 627. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University. (Link)
